EU grain trade body COCERAL has issued its first estimates of plantings for the 2021 combinable crops harvest in the EU 27 plus the UK. The figures are drawn from grain merchant and co-operative business members in each country.

Based on a UK winter wheat area of 1.823 million hectares and average yield of 8.29 tonnes/ha, Coceral predicts a 2021 wheat harvest of 15.12 million tonnes at this early stage, compared to the 2020 harvest of 10.13m tonnes from 1.415m ha at an average yield of 7.16 tonnes/ha.

The total UK cereals harvest, based on a planted area of 3.133mha and a mean yield of 7.3 tonnes/ha would be 22.87m tonnes, compared to 2020’s 19.7m tonnes produced from 3.057mha averaging 6.45 tonnes/ha.

Coceral forecasts a UK oilseed rape harvest of 1.17m tonnes, with a higher average yield (33.4 tonnes/ha) offsetting a further fall in plantings to 350,000ha. This compares to the 1.10m tonnes from harvest 2020 produced from 362,000ha yielding 2.79 tonnes/ha.

The trade association forecasts a total grain crop across the EU-27+UK of 307.4m tonnes, up from the 295.7m tonnes harvested in 2020. Wheat (excluding durum) is predicted to recover to 143.0m tonnes (127.9m tonnes) as plantings recover in France, Germany, the UK and the Balkan countries after the disruption caused by 2019’s very wet autumn.

EU-27+UK barley production for 2021 is estimated at 61.5m tonnes, down from the 63.1m tonnes in 2020. Higher barley plantings in Germany and France are not enough to offset a reduction in Spain and the UK. The EU-27+UK 2021 grain maize output should rise slightly to 63.1m tonnes in 2021 from the previous year’s 62.8m tonnes.

Finally, Coceral predicts a EU-27+UK rapeseed crop of 17.8m tonnes (16.9m tonnes in 2020) with higher plantings in Germany, France, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary.

 Winter WheatWinter BarleySpring BarleyOatsOilseed RapePulses
Coceral1,823427660190350-
AHDB1,815394767219318257

Source: Coceral/AHDB

The full Coceral 2021 cereal and oilseed estimates are available here.