The AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds has rerun its Earlybird winter crop plantings survey, with the revision up to March 13th more in line with trade estimates than the original.
“After an extremely challenging autumn, AHDB re-ran this survey in March 2024 to give insight to the potential cropped areas for harvest 2024,” says the levy body. “The November survey had already pointed to less winter cropping for harvest 2024, but the continued wet weather through winter has sharply exacerbated the declines. The latest survey shows the anticipated harvest areas for winter crops, so the larger year-on-year falls point to winter losses, as well as prevented plantings.
“In addition, crop condition remains patchy, which will likely impact yield potential. There may be many fields kept because they are just good enough to take to harvest, or because there aren’t other viable options – especially winter wheat and OSR.”
The Andersons Centre undertakes the survey of national cropping intentions, with the help of the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and other agronomists.
Estimated planted areas for harvest 2024 (‘000ha)
Earlybird revision 2024
| 2023 (Defra) | 2024 | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat | 1,720 | 1,463 | -15 |
| Winter Barley | 455 | 355 | -22 |
| Spring Barley | 682 | 881 | 29 |
| Oats | 167 | 209 | 26 |
| Other Cereals | 65 | 53 | -18 |
| Oilseed rape | 391 | 280 | -28 |
| Other oilseeds | 26 | 20 | -24 |
| Pulses | 275 | 236 | -14 |
| Arable Fallow | 311 | 558 | 79 |
| Other arable crops | 709 | 745 | 5 |
| Total | 4,800 | 4,800 |
Source: AHDB
The wheat area could be the smallest since 2020, after the wet autumn 2019, which resulted in a UK wheat harvest below ten million tonnes. The AHDB warns that its survey only covers the planted area, not condition of crops that were drilled – many of which are patchy and had waterlogged areas. The continued wet conditions have shortened the growing season for spring sown winter wheat varieties, which are now unlikely to develop into a viable crop.
The winter barley area has also fallen to its lowest since 2020, although compensatory spring barley plantings are not forecast to meet the one million hectares planted that year. The Survey predicts a 881,000h spring barley crop for harvest 2024, with the area constrained by the slowing rate of input cost deflation, uncertainty over seed availability and falling farmgate cereal prices.
The spring oat area could rise by 26% to 209,000ha, similar to the 210,000ha harvested in 2020.
The EBS estimates a total oilseed rape area of 280,000ha by harvest 2024, a 28% fall year on-year that reflects the poor growing conditions, with heavy rain, water logging and pest challenges since the first surveys. This would be the smallest UK osr crop for 40 years.
The survey forecasts a sharp rise in arable fallow, up almost 80% from 2023. The figure includes a “significant but unmeasured proportion of growers switching into agri-environmental options”. The authors warn the difficult soil conditions, plus profitability concerns are reportedly making environmental schemes more appealing. They add the longer the wet conditions persist, the more land that may be fallowed this year.