The AIC Feed Sector is warning livestock producers that feed supplies are likely to be tight over the forthcoming winter feed period, and to liaise with their feed suppliers to plan requirements.
The Confederations’ UK Feed Market Outlook – Winter 2025/6 warns that a combination of geopolitical events, a challenging UK harvest and the exceptionally dry summer in some regions has placed pressure on the feed supply for this autumn. “Whilst the feed industry and livestock farmers are currently managing to balance nutrient requirements and supply, it is unusual to have to manage such pressures so early in the season,” it notes.
Imported feeds
Some 46% of the UK’s 16 million tonnes of feed raw materials used each year is imported – including high proteins such as soya; ruminant fibres like palm kernel expeller and soya hulls; commodities from maize to rapeseed meal and sunflower meal; plus essential feed additives like vitamins and amino acids.
While international commodity supply chains are generally effective in managing risks such as military conflict, extreme weather events and the impact of climate change, the AIC notes that, additional challenges from regulatory and trade policy uncertainty are adding pressure to the system. Tariffs, either proposed or actual, and anti-dumping measures shift supply and demand patterns. This particularly affects markets reliant on forward contracts, where the terms of future supply may not be known.
A lack of clarity over the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) – due to come into effect at the end of 2025 after a year’s delay – is resulting in very few market offers for soya products for Q1/Q2 2026. The EU Feed Manufacturers’ Federation warns this could see an EUDR premium for soyabean meal of 5% to 10% over the ‘normal’ price, or a €20 – €40/tonne premium.
The recent UK–US trade agreement’s removal of the 19% import tariff on US bioethanol will make domestic production uncompetitive, with more distillers’ dark grains with solubles (DDGS) feed co-product needing to be imported, adding time and cost to the supply chain.
Dry summer
Domestically, the exceptionally dry summer in 2025 has left many dairy, beef and sheep farmers short of both grass for grazing and forage for winter feeding – although there is considerable regional variation. Farmers short of grass have been feeding forage and combining it with wheatfeed, reducing the availability of wheatfeed for feed compounders.
Compounders have seen increased demand for feed due to the lack of grass and forage and would generally look to add sugar beet pulp to their ruminant rations. But the 2025/26 UK sugar beet harvest is starting late due to the dry weather, which is also likely to depress yield and volume – drawing in more imported beet pulp to fill the gap. This would also increase demand for imported fibres such as palm kernel expeller or soya hulls which are already affected by the uncertainty surrounding EUDR in Europe.
The AIC warns that the above factors point to a growing trend towards import dependency in the feed industry. “The sourcing approach remains ‘as local as possible, as global as necessary’, but the market conditions described above point towards a higher level of import reliance through to Q2 2026,” it says. “While this in itself does not pose a threat to raw material availability or feed supply, the main implication is one of timing. It is not possible to respond to short-term demand in an import-dependent situation.”
The feed industry is urging livestock farmers to carefully calculate and prepare thorough and accurate feed requirements through to the end of Q2 2026, with the help of their registered feed advisers. It advises factoring in uncertainty over weather conditions in Q2 2026, which could lead to ruminant sheep producers having to manage difficult and unexpected conditions.
“Forage stocks will be very tight in some areas, making planning nutritional requirements at the tail end of winter even more important,” the AIC concludes.