The European grain trade body COCERAL has reduced its estimates of European wheat and oilseed rape production for harvest 2026, compared to last year. UK wheat and oilseed rape production is predicted to increase, subject to weather conditions between now and harvest.
UK and Europe wheat and OSR forecasts for 2026
| Crop | UK | Europe - 33 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | ||
| Wheat | |||||
| Area (mill ha) | 1.704 | 1.531 | 7.75 | 7.66 | |
| Yield (t/ha) | 8.12 | 7.28 | 31.7 | 32.4 | |
| Production (M tonnes) | 13.83 | 11.15 | 24.55 | 28.83 | |
| OSR | |||||
| Area (‘000ha) | 0.305 | 0.241 | 29.39 | 29.24 | |
| Yield (t/ha) | 32.8 | 37 | 57.9 | 60.2 | |
| Production (M tonnes) | 1.002 | 0.893 | 170.18 | 175.9 | |
Source: Coceral
The trade association bases its forecasts on data supplied by member organisations including the AIC in the UK.
The UK wheat estimate assumes a larger planted area than in 2025, and a higher average yield after the extremely dry conditions during the crucial growth and development stage in that year. This points to a total crop of just under 14 million tonnes, compared to the second lowest total for many years in 2025.
The forecast for total UK barley production is little changed at 6.39 m tonnes (6.37m tonnes in 2025), including a spring barley crop of 3.86m tonnes (3.90m tonnes).
The UK OSR production is just over one million tonnes from the 893,000 tonnes in 2025, as the planted area rises from last year’s 40 year low. However, the average yield is predicted to be down from the high of 3.7t/ha reached last year.
COCERAL predicts a total grain crop in the EU-27+UK of 298.8m tonnes, down from 310.5m tonnes last year. In southern Europe, the crucial development stage has already started, with excellent soil moisture and a promising crop outlook. Barley production is forecast to decline to 59.3m tonnes, again down from the 63.6m tonnes last year. The EU-27+UK 2026 corn crop should recover from the drought-affected crop in 2025. Production is forecast at 60.7m tonnes, from the 59.3m tonnes in 2025. The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is forecast at 21.1m tonnes, slightly lower than last year’s 21.4m tonnes.
The full COCERAL crop estimate tables can be downloaded here.